A blessing in disguise?

I was literally 3 weeks away from announcing to my manager that I would leave “soon”. And then stuff hit the fan.

Back on February 20, about a month ago, when the market was at its high, I created a draft for a post on this blog. It was entitled “a very anticlimatic finale” (very ironic, in hindsight). Back then, I was roughly 1% away from my “number”, the number at which I had promised myself I would pull the plug. “By March, I’ll be at my number and I can publish this article,” I told myself. “Technically, even if the market stays flat for the rest of this month, between my salary and some money that’s not accounted for yet, we’ll be there by then”.

Then the markets started to freak out because of the virus, and then they totally freaked out because of oil (and the virus), and here we are, 1 month later, with me now 20% away from my target. Or something close to that, I stopped counting and I’m a bit afraid to look.

Now, technically, ERN’s spreadsheet tells me I’m still fine: the numbers show that after such a huge drawdown, one can historically expect to have a huge rebound in the months or years to come, that mean that one’s Safe Withdrawal Rate increases significantly. Buuuut, I’m not feeling like I want to take that risk.

So, in a way, I’m glad this bear market hit us now, rather than, say 1 or 2 months later. If that had happened, I would probably have been unemployed (or soon to be) right as it hit.

  1. Eric B
  2. RetireJapan